OPEC has updated its long-term oil demand forecasts in its 2024 World Oil Outlook, projecting a steady increase in global oil consumption due to growth in India, Africa, and the Middle East, as well as a slower transition to electric vehicles, Reuters reports.
The organization anticipates world oil demand will reach 118.9 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045, and 120.1 million bpd by 2050, significantly higher than projections from other industry players like BP and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which expect peak oil demand this decade. OPEC’s medium-term outlook also raised demand forecasts for 2028 to 111 million bpd and for 2029 to 112.3 million bpd, exceeding IEA’s projections by more than 6 million bpd. The organization asserts that over 2.9 billion vehicles will be on the road by 2050, with combustion engine vehicles still making up over 70% of the global fleet.
To support this demand, OPEC emphasizes the need for $17.4 trillion in investment in the oil sector by 2050. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to increase its market share to 52% by 2050 as US oil production peaks around 2030.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais highlighted that rising demand will stem from developing regions with increasing populations and urbanization. The report suggests that the pace of adopting clean energy technologies will face challenges, with some automakers scaling back electrification goals.
